You work on a navigation platform and want to test whether rerouting a small fraction of vehicles away from congested segments improves city-wide driving speeds. The catch: the intervention isn't applied to individual users at random — it reshapes traffic conditions for everyone on the network, including drivers not using your app at all.
How do you design a valid experiment to measure the causal effect of this routing intervention? Walk through your choice of randomization unit, how you handle interference between treatment and control, and how you'd analyze the results.
Practice against the follow-up probes
- Why can't you use a standard A/B test that randomly assigns individual trips to treatment vs. control?
- You chose a switchback design alternating treatment and control by day. What are the main threats to validity with that choice, and how would you mitigate them?
- How do you choose which road segments to target, and how does that selection affect what causal claim you can make?
- You observe a 2% speed improvement on targeted segments but only 0.35% network-wide. What explains the gap, and which number should drive the business decision?
- A critic argues that day-of-week confounding (e.g., treatment days happened to be less rainy) explains the result. How do you rule that out?
Show answer guide
What the interviewer is probing
This question tests whether the candidate immediately recognizes the network interference problem — the defining reason standard A/B testing fails here — and whether they can reason about the trade-offs of the available alternatives (geographic clustering, switchback/crossover, synthetic control). It also probes metric judgment: the distinction between local segment effects and network-wide effects is not cosmetic, and a strong candidate will articulate why only one of them represents the policy-relevant estimand. Finally, the follow-ups reveal causal discipline — can they enumerate the confounders a switchback design is exposed to and propose concrete countermeasures?
Strong answer outline
- Why standard A/B fails: routing changes are not independent across users — diverting user A changes congestion for user B, so individual-level randomization produces SUTVA violations everywhere. Treatment and control units interfere, making estimated effects meaningless.
- Randomization unit options and their costs:
- Geographic clustering (randomize by city or district): eliminates within-city interference but requires many cities for power; spillover at cluster boundaries remains.
- Switchback / crossover design (alternate treatment and control over time across the whole city): removes geographic spillover by giving the entire network the same treatment state at any moment. Cost: assumes the city reaches a new equilibrium quickly, and that consecutive-day effects don't bleed over (carryover bias).
- Synthetic control (match treated cities to untreated ones): useful for city-level rollouts but requires rich pre-treatment data and assumes no network ties between cities.
- Segment selection is a design choice, not a tuning knob: selecting ~100 historically congested segments creates a well-defined estimand (effect on those bottlenecks) but limits external validity to similar bottleneck types. Pre-registration matters here to prevent post-hoc fishing.
- Carryover bias in switchback: traffic patterns have memory (rush hours, weekly seasonality). Mitigation: enforce washout periods between arms, balance arm assignment by day-of-week, and model residual autocorrelation explicitly in the analysis.
- Analysis with hierarchical Bayesian model: pools information across cities and hours while allowing city-level heterogeneity; appropriate when per-city power is limited. Key output is a posterior distribution over the effect, not just a point estimate — which forces honest uncertainty communication.
- Interpreting the two effect sizes: the ~2% targeted-segment effect measures local decongestion; the ~0.35% network-wide effect is the policy-relevant number because it captures both the gains on cleared segments and the costs imposed on absorbing segments. Reporting only the larger local number would overstate societal benefit.
- Common wrong turns: claiming individual-level causal effects from a city-level design; ignoring that non-app users benefit (which is actually an argument for the intervention, not against measurement); conflating statistical significance with practical significance at 0.35%.
The underlying concept
Standard A/B testing rests on the Stable Unit Treatment Value Assumption (SUTVA): one unit's treatment does not affect another's outcome. Traffic networks violate this structurally — a rerouted vehicle changes travel times for every other vehicle on its new and old path, a phenomenon called interference or spillover. When interference is global (the whole network is one connected system), the only valid randomization units are ones that contain the interference: entire cities, or time periods in a switchback design. Switchback designs trade spatial isolation for temporal isolation, measuring the city's response to switching the entire system between states, but they introduce carryover risk whenever the system's equilibrium lag exceeds the switching interval. The causal estimand must be defined at the level of the randomization unit — network-wide average speed, not individual trip time — or the estimate is not causally identified.
Source
Derived from The power of collaboration: How we can reduce traffic congestion